Market Math
Private Home Prices Rose 3.4% in 2025 — Slowest Since 2020
Feb 16, 2026
The headline: Singapore private home prices grew 3.4% in 2025, down from 3.9% in 2024 and the slowest pace since 2020. Non-landed properties rose just 2.3% for the year. The big surprise: CCR (prime district) prices fell 3.2% in Q4 alone, while OCR (suburban) held steady at +3.2% for the full year. Developer sales surged 66% to 10,757 units. For upgraders, this is a rare window where condo prices are cooling while HDB values hold firm.
Full-year price growth by region
| Region | 2025 Growth | 2024 Growth | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall (all private) | +3.4% | +3.9% | Slower |
| Non-landed (all) | +2.3% | +2.5% | Slower |
| CCR (prime) | +2.2% | +3.0% | Slower |
| RCR (city fringe) | +1.6% | +3.0% | Slower |
| OCR (suburban) | +3.2% | +3.4% | ~Flat |
| Landed | +7.6% | +5.1% | Faster |
Source: URA flash estimate, Jan 2 2026. Full-year figures are Q4 2025 index vs Q4 2024 index.
Q4 2025 — the quarter that changed the trend
Q4 2025 is where the story gets interesting. Overall prices rose just 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, but the CCR crashed 3.2% in a single quarter — the steepest quarterly drop since Q2 2020. Meanwhile, OCR held up at +1.0% and RCR managed +0.7%.
The CCR drop was driven by fewer high-end transactions and some price resetting in luxury segment projects. For upgraders targeting mass-market condos in OCR/RCR, this is not directly relevant — but it signals that the overall market is no longer running away from you.
| Region | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCR (prime) | +2.4% | -3.2% | Sharp drop |
| RCR (city fringe) | +0.1% | +0.7% | Stable |
| OCR (suburban) | +1.0% | +1.0% | Stable |
| Landed | +1.4% | +3.4% | Accelerating |
Developer sales surged — 10,757 units sold
Despite price moderation, volume told a different story. Developers sold 10,757 new private homes (excl. ECs) in 2025, up 66.3% from 6,469 in 2024. They also launched 11,500 units — 42% more than the previous year.
This matters for upgraders because more supply = more choice. In 2024, the thin pipeline meant buyers competed for limited options, pushing prices up. In 2025, the supply floodgate opened, and prices responded by growing slower.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New homes sold | 6,469 | 10,757 | +66% |
| Units launched | 6,647 | 11,500 | +42% |
| Price growth | +3.9% | +3.4% | Slower |
New launch median PSF by region
These are the median prices per square foot for new launch condos sold in 2025 — what you'd actually pay if you were buying a new unit today.
| Region | Median PSF | Quantum (800 sqft) | Quantum (1,000 sqft) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCR (prime) | $3,208 | $2,566K | $3,208K |
| RCR (city fringe) | $2,695 | $2,156K | $2,695K |
| OCR (suburban) | $2,154 | $1,723K | $2,154K |
Based on 2025 developer sales caveats. Quantum = PSF x unit size, excluding BSD/legal.
What this means for HDB upgraders
The gap is narrowing in your favour. HDB resale prices were flat in Q4 2025 (0.0% growth), but they're still up 2.9% for the full year. Meanwhile, the condo market your upgrade targets — OCR new launches at ~$2,154 psf and resale condos at ~$1,200 psf — grew slower than your HDB.
The practical impact: an HDB owner sitting on $600K of equity today is in a stronger relative position than 12 months ago. Condo prices didn't run away, SORA dropped below 1%, and there's more supply to choose from.
Upgrade math: $600K HDB to OCR condo
Typical scenario: couple selling a 5-room HDB at $600K, targeting an OCR resale condo. Assume $200K CPF used, $150K loan outstanding, combined income $14K/month.
| Step | Amount |
|---|---|
| HDB sale price | $600,000 |
| Loan repayment | -$150,000 |
| CPF refund (principal + accrued interest) | -$250,000 |
| Agent + legal fees | -$15,000 |
| Cash in hand | ~$185,000 |
| CPF OA (after refund) | ~$250,000 |
| Target Condo | Down (25%) | Monthly | Income Ratio | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.0M resale | $250K | $3,960 | 28% | Comfortable |
| $1.3M resale | $325K | $5,150 | 37% | Manageable |
| $1.5M resale | $375K | $5,940 | 42% | Tight |
| $1.7M new launch | $425K | $6,730 | 48% | TDSR limit |
At $14K combined income, the sweet spot is $1.0M-$1.3M resale condo. The $600K HDB covers down payment comfortably, with cash left for stamp duty ($24.6K-$36.6K) and renovation.
75% LTV, 25-year tenure, 3.5% display rate. TDSR stress-tested at 4%. BSD included in down payment estimate.
2026 outlook — more supply coming
59% of condo launches in the 2026 pipeline are in the OCR — the exact segment HDB upgraders target. More suburban supply means more competition among developers, which historically caps price growth.
Analysts project 3-4% private home price growth for 2026. Combined with SORA below 1% and more supply, the math for upgraders in 2026 looks better than it has since 2021.
Run your upgrade numbers
Plug in your HDB value, CPF usage, loan balance, and income. See exactly what condo you can afford and what the monthly payment looks like.
Run My NumbersRelated
Published Feb 16, 2026. Data from URA flash estimate (Jan 2, 2026) and EdgeProp. Developer sales based on caveats lodged as at Dec 21, 2025. Upgrade math is illustrative — use our calculators for your exact numbers. This is market commentary, not financial advice.
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