Market Math
New Launch vs Resale Condo in 2026 — The Price Gap Is Growing
Feb 10, 2026
Quick answer: The new launch premium over resale has widened to 30-40% in OCR. At $2,000+ psf for new launches vs $1,200-$1,500 for resale, resale condos are looking increasingly attractive for upgraders. On a 1,000 sqft unit, you're paying $800K-$1M more for new launch.
New launch pricing (recent launches)
| Project | Region | Median PSF |
|---|---|---|
| Aurelle of Tampines | OCR | $1,800 |
| Arina East Residences | RCR | $2,200 |
| One Sophia | CCR | $2,500 |
| Norwood Grand | OCR | $2,070 |
| Nava Grove | RCR | $2,150 |
Based on median transacted prices from URA caveats, Q4 2025 to Q1 2026.
Resale pricing (current market)
| Region | Median PSF (resale) | New Launch PSF | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCR (Outside Central) | $1,200 | $1,800-$2,100 | 50-75% |
| RCR (Rest of Central) | $1,500 | $2,100-$2,300 | 40-53% |
| CCR (Core Central) | $1,800 | $2,400-$2,700 | 33-50% |
Resale medians based on URA REALIS transactions, trailing 6 months. New launch ranges from recent project median prices.
The premium math: what $800K buys you
Take a 1,000 sqft 3-bedder in OCR. Resale at $1,200 psf = $1.2M. New launch at $2,000 psf = $2.0M. That's an $800,000 premium — before BSD, which adds another ~$24,600 on the new launch side.
What does $800K get you? A newer kitchen, a pool you might use twice a year, and 3-5 years of construction risk. That's the trade-off.
| Item | New Launch ($2M) | Resale ($1.2M) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purchase price | $2,000,000 | $1,200,000 | $800,000 |
| BSD | $64,600 | $40,600 | $24,000 |
| Monthly payment (75% LTV, 1.30%) | $5,940 | $3,560 | $2,380/mo |
| Down payment (25%) | $500,000 | $300,000 | $200,000 |
75% LTV, 25-year tenure, 1.30% fixed rate. BSD based on current progressive tiers.
When new launch wins
ABSD timing. Progressive payment schedule means you don't trigger ABSD on your next property until TOP. If you're selling your HDB, buying new launch gives you more time — you pay progressively over 3-4 years of construction instead of the full price upfront.
Newer facilities and design. Smart home features, better layouts, newer condo facilities. For some buyers, this matters.
Potential appreciation. If the location is good and the developer prices conservatively, new launches can appreciate from launch to TOP. But this is not guaranteed — many OCR new launches have gone sideways or down after TOP.
When resale wins
Immediate move-in. No 3-5 year wait. No temporary rental costs ($2,000-$3,500/month for a condo while waiting for your new launch).
Proven location. You can see the actual unit, the real view, the neighborhood. No show-flat surprises.
Lower psf, often larger units. Older condos tend to have bigger unit sizes. A 1,200 sqft resale at $1,200 psf is $1.44M. The comparable new launch 3-bedder might be 900 sqft at $2,000 psf = $1.8M — smaller and more expensive.
No construction risk. No delays, no defects rectification period, no wondering if the developer cuts corners.
The upgrader math
Take a typical HDB upgrader: $300K cash + CPF from HDB sale (after refund), $500K CPF OA, household income $12K/month. What can they afford?
| Scenario | Max affordable | Monthly payment | Income ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resale condo (OCR) | $1.2M-$1.4M | $3,560-$4,160 | 30-35% |
| New launch (OCR) | $1.8M-$2.0M | $5,340-$5,940 | 45-50% |
The resale path keeps you at a comfortable 30-35% income ratio. The new launch path pushes you to 45-50% — technically within TDSR limits but tight. One job loss or rate hike away from stress.
Based on 75% LTV, 25-year tenure, 1.30% rate. Income ratio = monthly payment / gross household income.
Which one works for your numbers?
Run the affordability calculator with your actual HDB proceeds, CPF, and income. Compare new launch vs resale side by side.
Check My AffordabilityRelated
Published Feb 10, 2026. Pricing data from URA REALIS and developer price lists. This is market commentary, not financial advice.
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