Market Math
1,594 Million-Dollar HDB Flats in 2025 — 4-Room Flats Now Lead the Pack
Feb 16, 2026
The headline: A record 1,594 HDB resale flats sold for $1 million or more in 2025 — a 54% jump from 1,035 in 2024. The real story: 4-room flats overtook 5-rooms in the million-dollar club for the first time, with 646 transactions vs 536. Toa Payoh led all towns with 296 deals. But what does this mean for your upgrade math?
The numbers: 2024 vs 2025
| Flat Type | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Room | 381 | 646 | +70% |
| 5-Room | 392 | 536 | +37% |
| Executive | 253 | 357 | +41% |
| Total $1M+ | 1,035 | 1,594 | +54% |
Source: HDB resale data via EdgeProp, as at 18 Dec 2025.
Why 4-room flats are leading
This isn't just inflation. Three structural forces are driving 4-room flats past the $1M mark:
1. Location concentration. Six towns — Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, Central Area, Queenstown, Kallang/Whampoa, and Geylang — had more million-dollar 4-room deals than 5-room deals. These are mature estates where 4-room flats dominate the housing stock.
2. Pinnacle effect. Three 4-room units at The Pinnacle @ Duxton fetched $1.4M+ each in 2025. The highest: $1.518M in March. When an iconic development keeps setting records, it pulls median prices up across the entire Central Area.
3. New DBSS and premium stock. DBSS flats and HDB designs from 2010–2015 in mature towns are hitting 10–15 years old — prime resale condition with modern layouts, high ceilings, and full-height windows. A well-maintained 4-room in Toa Payoh can command $900–$1,200 psf.
Top 5 towns for million-dollar deals
| Town | $1M+ Deals (2025) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Toa Payoh | 296 | 19% |
| Bukit Merah | 209 | 13% |
| Queenstown | 165 | 10% |
| Kallang/Whampoa | 144 | 9% |
| Clementi | 100 | 6% |
Top 5 towns = 57% of all million-dollar deals. 91% of all $1M+ flats are in mature estates.
Context: this is still 6.4% of the market
Before the headlines scare you: million-dollar flats represented 6.4% of all HDB resale transactions in 2025. The other 93.6% sold for less. And 73% of all resale deals closed below $750,000.
The average price of a million-dollar flat was $1.14M — just 1.8% higher than 2024's average of $1.12M. Most of these transactions are at the lower end of the million-dollar spectrum — flats barely crossing the $1M line, not $1.5M outliers.
Only 8 of 26 HDB towns had median resale prices above $750,000. If your flat is in Woodlands, Jurong West, or Bukit Batok, you're not in this conversation — and that's fine. The math for your upgrade path is different.
Upgrade math: if your 4-room sells for $1M
Let's say you bought a 4-room flat in Toa Payoh for $400,000 in 2013 and sell for $1.05M today. After 12 years of CPF usage, here's the real picture:
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Sale price | $1,050,000 |
| Outstanding loan | −$80,000 |
| CPF principal used (est.) | −$232,000 |
| CPF accrued interest (est.) | −$73,000 |
| Agent commission (2%) | −$21,000 |
| Legal fees | −$2,500 |
| Cash in hand | ~$641,500 |
| CPF OA (refunded) | ~$305,000 |
Assumes $100K CPF for down payment + $1,100/mo CPF for 12 years. 2.5% annual accrued interest.
What can you buy next?
With ~$641K cash and ~$305K in CPF OA, assuming combined household income of $12,000/month:
| Target Condo | Down (25%) | Monthly | Income Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.2M resale | $300K | $5,020 | 42% |
| $1.5M resale | $375K | $6,270 | 52% |
| $1.8M new launch | $450K | $7,520 | 63% |
On $12K income, TDSR caps your mortgage at $6,600/month (at 4% stress test). That means your ceiling is around $1.4M–$1.5M. A $1.2M resale condo in the OCR is the sweet spot — comfortable at 42% of income with cash to spare.
75% LTV, 25-year tenure, stress-tested at 4% for TDSR. BSD included in down payment. Market rate 3.5% for monthly payment.
What if your flat is worth $600K, not $1M?
Most 4-room owners aren't sitting on a million-dollar flat. The median 4-room resale price is $450K–$700K depending on town. Let's run the numbers for a more typical scenario: a 4-room flat selling at $600K.
| Item | $600K Sale | $1.05M Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Sale price | $600,000 | $1,050,000 |
| Loan + CPF refund + fees | −$395,000 | −$408,500 |
| Net cash | ~$205,000 | ~$641,500 |
| Max condo (at $12K income) | ~$1.0M | ~$1.5M |
A $600K seller walks away with ~$205K cash — enough for a $1M condo (5% cash = $50K). The million-dollar flat seller has more margin, but both paths require the same income discipline. TDSR is the real gatekeeper, not your HDB sale price.
What this means for 2026
With ~11,181 flats reaching MOP in 2026 (up from 6,973 in 2025 — the lowest in 11 years), supply is coming. More resale listings should moderate price growth, which the Q4 2025 RPI already shows — prices were flat for the first time since 2020.
But mature town premiums are structural. Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, and Queenstown won't suddenly get cheaper because of new supply in Tengah or Woodlands. If you own in these towns, your 4-room could be worth $800K–$1.1M by year-end. Whether to sell depends on one thing: do you have a clear upgrade path with comfortable monthly payments?
Run your own numbers
Enter your HDB value, CPF usage, income, and target condo price. See exactly what you walk away with after CPF clawback.
Related
Published Feb 16, 2026. Transaction data from HDB resale records via EdgeProp (as at 18 Dec 2025). CPF and affordability estimates are illustrative — check my.cpf.gov.sg for your exact numbers.
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