HDB Resale Prices Go Flat for First Time Since 2020 — What It Means for Upgraders

The trend is clear: Q1 growth of 1.7% decelerated every quarter, landing at 0.0% in Q4. Volume tells the same story — Q4 saw just 5,256 transactions, down 27% from Q3 and 18% from Q4 2024.

After two years of near-double-digit growth, 2025 marks a hard reset. The 2.9% growth is the weakest since 2019. And the last three quarters of 2025 grew by less than 1% combined — effectively the market has been flat for 9 months.

1. BTO supply ramp-up. HDB committed to 19,600 BTO flats in 2026 after a massive Feb 2026 launch of 9,012 flats (BTO + SBF). More BTO options pull some demand away from resale.

2. MOP supply surge. After just 6,973 flats reaching MOP in 2025 (lowest in 11 years), ~11,181 flats hit MOP in 2026. More sellers entering the resale market means more competition, which slows price growth.

3. Buyer resistance at current prices. With 4-room resale medians above $500K in most towns and million-dollar flats making headlines, some buyers are hitting affordability walls. Resale volume dropping 9.7% signals exactly this — demand isn't gone, but buyers are being more selective.

It depends on where you are in the upgrade cycle.

If you're selling your HDB: Don't panic. Flat growth doesn't mean price drops. The RPI went from 203.7 to 203.6 — that's a rounding error, not a correction. Your flat is still worth what it was 3 months ago. But the days of 10% annual gains are over. If you're waiting for your HDB to appreciate further before selling, the math no longer supports that bet.

If you're buying a condo: Flat HDB prices mean your sale proceeds are predictable. That's a feature, not a bug. With SORA below 1% and fixed rates around 1.3%, your monthly payment on the next property is the lowest it's been in 2 years. The window between "HDB prices stable" and "rates still low" is the upgrade sweet spot.

Here's a concrete comparison. Assume you own a 4-room flat worth $600K today, buying a $1.3M resale condo:

Analysts are projecting 2–5% HDB resale price growth for 2026, with most estimates clustered around 3%. Transaction volume is expected to be around 26,000–27,000 units — roughly flat versus 2025.

The incoming MOP supply of ~11,181 flats (3-room and larger) should keep the market balanced. But don't expect prices to fall either. With 73% of transactions still below $750K, the broader market has room to run. The slowdown is concentrated in the top end of mature estates, where prices are already stretched.

Bottom line: if you're planning to upgrade, a stable HDB market with low interest rates is about as good as the conditions get. The question isn't whether to move — it's whether your income supports the monthly payment.